College Football Week 5 Fan's Guide

In statement games early on in the SEC conference, the last two national champions, Florida and LSU, forged their place at the top of the nation’s best conference with solid road victories. The fourth-ranked Gators simply overwhelmed Tennessee, a team struggling to come anywhere near their expectations. The 27-0 win was another showcase for what is becoming a great defense. This unit could make this team the best in the SEC. They are that good. The defending champion Tigers had to go the distance against Auburn on the road, but showed true grit in the fourth quarter to steal a 26-21 win. The game was a real treat, and it was only the first major battle between true SEC powerhouses.

A second major battle happens this week as Nick Saban takes the Crimson Tide into Athens to face third-ranked Georgia. Both teams had impressive wins last week; the Bulldogs were expected to be in this position coming off last year’s Sugar Bowl victory, but Alabama has announced themselves as true contenders very early. A win here would give them two wins over top-10 teams in the first month of the season, easily the best resume of any team in the nation. Week 5 also serves as the start of the Big Ten schedule, with several games of note on tap. Beanie Wells is finally expected to return to action as the Buckeyes get set to host Minnesota, which is 4-0 for the first time since 2004. It will be interesting to see if Ohio State can get their mojo back as one of the top teams in the nation, or whether this slump is for real.


North Carolina (2-1) @ Miami (2-1), 12:00 pm ET
Two emerging programs in the ACC take to the Orange Bowl for a critical Coastal Division tilt. Butch Davis has made the Tar Heels a team that is ready to return to a bowl game, but his squad really squandered a huge opportunity to Virginia Tech last week. North Carolina blew a 17-3 against the defending conference champion in a game that would have elevated the Tar Heels into the favorite to win the division. Instead, Davis is trying to downplay the effect of the discouraging loss, while also frantically searching how he can replace injured QB TJ Yates. The choices for Davis are redshirt freshman Mike Paulus and junior Cam Sexton, and he has yet to name one as the definitive starter for Saturday’s game. You can bet Davis will have the Heels riled up and ready to go in a game against a program he helped rebuild in the late 90’s.

On the flip side, Randy Shannon and the Hurricanes have gotten off to an encouraging 2-1 start as they prepare for their conference opener. The U held up very well against the well-oiled Florida Gators, and were in it until the defense simple ran out of the gas in the fourth quarter. Miami followed that up with an impressive 18-point victory against Texas A&M on the road at Kyle Field that really reinforced the optimistic performance at the Swamp. Facing a shaken and battered opponent, the Hurricanes looked primed to strike again. The defense has looked great, and will have the opportunity to smother an inexperienced quarterback at the Orange Bowl. North Carolina was picked to finish second in the Coastal Division of the ACC, but Miami will pounce on this opportunity and put themselves in position to finish there.
Miami, 24-13


#9 Wisconsin (3-0) @ Michigan (1-2), 3:30 pm ET
With Ohio State looking a lot worse than originally thought, the Big Ten is looking more and more like it’s up for grabs. The Badgers begin their quest for a conference title by traveling to the Big House, a place they haven’t won in 14 years, but this game figures to be the easiest of a three game stretch that involves Ohio State and Penn State in the two subsequent weeks after this. PJ Hill has been the team’s brightest star on offense, anchoring the nation’s ninth leading rushing attack, but he has struggled mightily against Big Blue. The junior has mustered only 68 yards rushing in two games and is motivated to boost his production. It will be imperative for him to do so because the passing attack hasn’t thrived with new quarterback Allan Evridge. The senior has seen his completion percentage drop with each successive week and had a difficult time against good competition on the road in Fresno.

Looking at the Big Ten standings, it’s appalling to see Michigan in 11th place as the conference season officially kicks off. Struggles were expected in the first year of the Rich Rodriguez era, but nothing like this will ever be tolerated. The Wolverines are struggling to move the ball with an offense ranked 105th that isn’t breaking 300 yards a game. Steven Threet is the team’s quarterback, mostly because Nick Sheridan has dropped the ball and given him the job. Yet, Threet is only completing 55% of his passes and has only thrown two touchdown passes. Expect the struggles to continue against a Badgers defense that bends but doesn’t break. Michigan’s defense will need to gear up and gameplan for Hill because Evridge doesn’t have the tools to beat them. Even with a predictable run-based plan of action to practice, the Wolverines still won’t be able to save this sinking ship.
Wisconsin, 27-14


#24 TCU (4-0) @ #2 Oklahoma (3-0), 7:00 pm ET
The Mountain West has been a surprise conference to this point, putting three teams in the Associated Press poll for the first time in the conference’s history. In addition to that, they have made the Pac-10 their own personal punching bag, going 5-0 against them, including TCU’s 31-14 over Stanford two weeks ago. The Horned Frogs have been dominant, outscoring their opponents 172-31 for the season, but will face an entirely new challenge as they travel to Norman. Their defense has only allowed 31 yards a game on the ground, but will have trouble stopping the Sooners from getting that kind of yardage on any given play. That’s how explosive Sam Bradford and the second ranked Sooners are. One thing the Horned Frogs have on their side is a 17-10 victory over Bob Stoops’ team in September 2005, which they can use as a confidence builder.

Oklahoma’s offense has been nothing short of stellar, putting up 50 points in each of their first three games and averaging over 550 yards of total offense. Lost in the shuffle of some of the more glamour college quarterbacks is Bradford, who led the nation in quarterback efficiency as a sophomore and is among the leaders again this season. So far to date, he’s completing 72% of his passes and has 12 touchdowns against only two interceptions. He’s got a trio of great receivers to look at and has a dynamic running back with DeMarco Murray. In the last meeting, Oklahoma relied on the shaky Rhett Bomar as their quarterback; it’s clear that this is a different team with Bradford, and the result of this game will reflect that.
Oklahoma, 31-17


#8 Alabama (4-0) @ #3 Georgia (4-0), 7:45 pm ET
The SEC offers no breaks, and after last week’s exhilarating LSU/Auburn game, this is the matchup that takes center stage in Week 5. The Georgia Bulldogs had a successful trip west of the Mississippi River, battling past a wounded Arizona State team by a comfortable margin. This week, they face an opponent that has played terrific from the outset, and the challenge calls for Mark Richt’s team to step it up a notch. Matt Stafford, Knowshown Moreno, and AJ Green have played well as the leaders of the offensive unit, but haven’t dazzled like the Trojans have. Facing Nick Saban under the lights in a blackout at Samford Stadium, the time is now for the three of them to show the nation how talented they are. Georgia’s relentlessly fast defense has conquered all challenges, and could tip the balance of this game in their favor if they continue to play at their high level.

It hasn’t taken Nick Saban very long to return to prominence at the college level. The Crimson Tide have looked very strong in the early going, and in under a month they’ve gone from being on the fringe of the rankings to a bona fide national title contender. The offense has been fueled by three backs, and each of them are averaging over six yards a carry. Glen Coffee is averaging over 100 yards a game by himself, but Mark Ingram has scored four touchdowns right behind him. Freshmen Julio Jones has been as big a newcomer for the Crimson Tide as Green has been for the Bulldogs. He’s caught a touchdown pass in three of his first career games and hasn’t even gotten fully integrated on offense yet. Alabama’s defense has become as stingy as ever, and could match the Bulldogs stop for stop on Saturday night. The Tide have always had the talent to compete, but now they have the killer instinct and could surprise in primetime again.
Georgia, 17-16


#22 Illinois (2-1) @ #12 Penn State (4-0), 8:00 pm ET
After a breakout season last year, Ron Zook’s Fighting Illini have struggled to live up to expectations out of the gate. Juice Williams and Illinois have failed to play a solid game in their opening three, getting handled by Missouri in the opener, then looking sub-par in consecutive cupcakes at home. The task at hand gets much more difficult in the conference opener as the Illini get ready to travel to Happy Valley and play the surging Nittany Lions. As I mentioned earlier, this conference is up for the grabs, and this is the marquee game on the Big Ten slate. It’s a truly tall order for Illinois, who haven’t looked right in big games since they upset the top-ranked Buckeyes last November. The defense has been especially frustrating, and it doesn’t get any easier as they prepare to face Penn State.

Penn State has coined their offense the Spread HD, a term created by the team’s offensive coordinator. It doesn’t matter what you call it because the Nittany Lions have been lighting up the field with the nation’s sixth ranked offense that is averaging 539 yards a game. The offense has scored over 45 points in every game to this point, but it’s been on inferior competition, including Temple, Syracuse, and Coastal Carolina. But the defense has been dominant as well, allowing 222 yards and only 52 on the ground per game. This terrific combination has made Penn State an interesting team to watch as the season progresses, a team that could sneak their way into the national title picture, while the teams in the Big 12 and SEC beat up on each other. The road there begins with Saturday’s game, and Joe Paterno will have his team ready to play a against a side that hasn’t played well in big games lately.
Penn State, 41-13


Upset Special:
Notre Dame over Purdue


Last Week: 3-2
Season: 16-4 (Upset Specials: 0-1)