The Brett Favre saga has received an unbearable amount of attention, and is nowhere near being close to resolved. While we wait for a long overdue resolution, the time has finally come for me to unravel a preview for the upcoming NFL season. Today, we will begin in the AFC East, which will be the easiest division to forecast in 2008. Last year, the Patriots clinched the division before their 11th game of the season, a truly remarkable achievement on their way to a bittersweet 18-1 runner-up finish. Not much has changed entering this season, as Bill Belichick & Co. will be expected to win their sixth straight division title BY EVERYONE.
The real drama in the AFC East will be if the other three teams can find a way to cumulatively match the Patriots win total. In 2007, the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins combined to win 12 games, or four less than New England’s total from the regular season. If I were a betting man, I would definitely side with the AFC Champions in this argument because none of the other three teams got better in a tangible way to put a dent in the dynasty that has been created in the Northeast.
1. New England Patriots
Coach: Bill Belichick
Like you were expecting me to go out on a limb, and choose somewhere else here. New England has been blessed with the league’s easiest schedule, which includes games against the weak NFC West, and six gimme’s within their division. Don’t expect Tom Brady to throw 50 TD passes again, or Randy Moss to catch 20 plus touchdowns this season, but each will be in the running for MVP honors once again this year. The offense will be a juggernaut, with an experienced and steady offensive line that surrendered only 21 sacks. This year, New England must be more physical with their running game, and establish Laurence Maroney as their workhorse in order to achieve similar record-breaking success on offense.
The obvious flaw with the Patriots pertains to an aging defense that did an admirable job of keeping things together a year ago. It was always easy for the league’s fourth rated unit to have success with its offense cleaning house on every possession. There will be no shortage of blowouts with the cupcake lineup of games waiting for them, so they won't have much of a problem during the regular season. But, it could prove to be this team’s undoing when they face quality completion in the playoffs. The linebacking core is full of 30+ guys in Mike Vrabel, Adalius Thomas and Tedy Bruschi and the secondary will have to deal with the loss of Asante Samuel, who was paid $57 million in bolting to Philadelphia. The day will come when the defense will have to be overhauled, but that time is not right now.
The Lounge Says: 12-4
2. Buffalo Bills
Coach: Dick Jauron
After a woeful 0-3 start that included the tragic injury to Kevin Everett, the Bills played .700 ball over the next 10 games to briefly enter playoff contention, before a three game losing streak put them at 7-9 for the year. Buffalo finished 30th in offense and 31st in defense, yet believe improvements are on the horizon with Trent Edwards as the unquestioned starter at QB and the acquisition of Marcus Stroud (Jaguars) and Kawika Mitchell (Giants) to boost the defense. Questions remain about the rest of the offense, which doesn’t have much in the way of wide receivers to appropriately help the second year Edwards through his progression. He will have Marshawn Lynch though, who should run for over 1,000 yards again this year.
Even with a unit that allowed over 360 yards a game, the Bills still weren’t as pathetic as the numbers say. The bend, but not break attitude of Perry Fewell’s defense allowed a modest 22 points a game, which becomes much better when the 94 combined points the Patriots put on them is discarded. There were moments when the defense was great (first half of the Cowboys game), and others when it was porous (Weeks 2 and 11 against NE). Consistency will be crucial if this team wants to take the next step. The defense will be asked to carry this team, like it did when the Bills made their last playoff appearance, way back in 1999. Mitchell and Stroud will bring stability and a playoff swagger, but probably won't make a return with this team. Even with these guys, the Bills are still a cut below the quality teams of the stacked AFC.
The Lounge Says: 7-9
3. New York Jets
Coach: Eric Mangini
After a nearly flawless campaign in his first venture as head coach, things got a little rocky for Eric Mangini in his second year as his team stumbled to a 4-12 season. Kellen Clemens and Chad Pennington each started eight games, and neither was particularly effective. Pennington’s arm strength has been reduced to throwing seven yard out routes and crossing patterns in the flat, but he should have a better chance of remaining healthy with the signing of guard Alan Faneca and right tackle Damien Woody. Faneca became the richest lineman in league history when the Jets pried him away from the Steelers for a $40 million contract over five years. The Jets invested heavily in Thomas Jones, and he responded by giving the Jets a single touchdown with only 3.6 yards per carry. After that severe disappointment, the leash on him for 2008 is extremely short, with Leon Washington chomping at the bit to replace him. Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles have become a terrific duo at wide receiver; Cotchery is on the way up, while Coles will most likely settle into his role as the second option.
Defensively, the Jets are in a state of transition with Jonathan Vilma and Dewayne Robertson being unloaded for draft picks and New York using their sixth overall selection on Vernon Gholston. Gholston and free agent signing Calvin Pace are expected to replace Vilma, who was the defense’s heart and soul. Asking a 22-year rookie to become the leader of a defense that lost its best player is borderline crazy, but New York believes Pace is an ideal fit to relieve some of that load off Gholston's back. Together, New York's new duo at linebacker are going to receive $92 million, 43 of which is in guaranteed money. It's debatable if they will play like they deserve that kind of money in Year 1. The offense must get better to relieve some pressure of the D before this thing can start to get turned around. As long as Pennington and Clemens are the only options at QB, the Jets won’t come anywhere near playoff contention. Come January, people in Jets land will be clamoring for a first round pick on Tim Tebow or Matt Stafford.
The Lounge Says: 6-10*
4. Miami Dolphins
Coach: Tony Sparano
Where should we begin with the pathetic Dolphins, who were lucky to win the one game they did after Brian Billick's boneheaded time management handed them a generous W. They followed up the 2007 fiasco by trading away Jason Taylor and releasing Zach Thomas, cutting ties with their two best players. On the bright side they did bring in Bill Parcells who will instill an air of accountability and toughness that will change the losing culture in South Beach As a coach it's debatable whether or not the game has passed Parcells by, but when it comes to personnel, he should do just fine. In his first draft, he got stalwart Jake Long that will allow Miami to finally start building an offensive line to protect John Beck. Beck will endure plenty of licks in his first full year as a starter, but talk around training camp has centered on Ricky Williams. Williams had a brief comeback last year, before he got injured after his sixth carry on the year. With Ronnie Brown’s status for the upcoming season in the air, Williams has used his reps in practice to stake a claim to the starting running back position. Ernest Wilford was brought in to shore up a shaky wide receiver core, with Ted Ginn, Jr. as another receiver for Beck to look at. The rest of the wide outs have been compiled from a variety of sources, including undrafted rookies (Davone Bess), and the AFL (Anthony Armstrong). None of the seven other wide receivers left in training camp offer much in way of credentials, so it's easy to envision this team duplicating its 24th rated passing attack from '07.
In wake of losing Pro Bowlers Taylor and Thomas, Miami will have plenty of growing up to do on defense. Taylor and Thomas were part of a defensive overhaul that will put plenty of new faces in new places. Parcells has built his reputation by being a defensive-minded guy, but most of these guys wouldn’t last a couple practices if the Tuna were head coach. He hasn’t had his chance to put his mark on the team, and until then, the Dolphins will suffer mightily. Miami lacks star power on both sides of the ball and is only at the start of a verrrry long rebuilding process. The NFL is the most unpredictable sport of the Big Three, but the AFC East has two certainties: The Patriots will be good and the Dolphins will be equally as bad.
The Sports Lounge NFL Season Preview will run on Wednesdays and Fridays until the opening week of the season. On Friday, we will be doing a preview of the AFC North.
1 comments:
The Fish are destined for the SuperBowl!
Post a Comment