Don't Look Now, But the Mets are Coming

Things are rarely quiet in the Big Apple, but news of Alex Rodriguez’s impending divorce has drawn a lot of attention away from New York’s other team, the New York Mets. The boys from Queens have quietly put together an impressive stretch of baseball that has vaulted them back into postseason conversation. There have been enough fireworks in the Mets organization to light up an Independence Day show over the past year, but a new steady and calm influence has brought prosperity back to Shea Stadium.

After an unimpressive 5-6 start as interim manager, Jerry Manuel has led the Mets through a difficult stretch in stride as New York is 7-3 in their last 10 games, which includes trips to Yankee Stadium, Busch Stadium, and Citizens Bank Field. Manuel isn’t much different than Randolph, but the change has really affected the Mets in a positive manner. Facing their two most bitter rivals on the road, the Mets played their best ball of the season, splitting four games with the Yankees – including a day-night doubleheader at each team’s park – and taking three of four from the Phillies. In the middle, New York split four games with the Cardinals, the National League’s second best team.

In the atrocious National League, the Mets’ 46-44 record puts them only 1.5 games back of the Phillies, who have really come back to the pack in recent weeks. Philadelphia has longed for another starting pitcher to put them in contention with Arizona’s terrific duo of Brandon Webb and Danny Haren. They have already missed out on C.C. Sabathia and Rich Harden, two of the most prized commodities at the deadline. Erik Bedard is the only one that’s left, and Philadelphia must act fast to lock him up.

Until then, the Mets are putting themselves in position to take control of the weak NL East. The slumping Atlanta Braves are 13-30 on the road, and Chipper Jones’ health is a big question mark for the second half. His quest for .400 was one of the game’s most exciting stories for much of the first half, but the All-Star has slumped up late as his chronic pains have returned. The Florida Marlins are a great story, but simply don’t have the ammo to keep this up until October. That leaves the much maligned Mets, who are only beginning to show the look of a division winner.

With their most difficult stretch of the season behind them, New York is set up for a blazing finish heading into the All Star break. The Mets last five games are at home against the Giants and Rockies, two teams that are a combined 20 games under .500 on the road. It’s very possible that New York could end the first half on a nine-game winning streak. The slumping Phillies, on the other hand, end with the Cardinals and Diamondbacks, two teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. It’s very possible that New York could be in first when all is said and done for the first half. How’s that for a turnaround?

The most ominous part of this for the Mets rivals is that their big time offseason acquisition, Johan Santana, hasn’t even gotten started yet. The game’s most expensive pitcher is only 7-7 for the year, but has pitched well with a 2.96 ERA and 109 strikeouts. History has shown Santana to get better after the break, becoming downright unhittable for long stretches. In 2004, his first Cy Young season, he went 13-0 after the break, the best ever. Not to be outdone, Santana followed that up by going 9-2 in the second half of 2005, and 10-1 in 2006. There’s no reason to think it won’t happen again this year. He still lacks a reliable second starter behind him, but I dare you to show me a single team in the National League without a glaring weakness.

New York doesn’t need to look very far for inspiration of an astonishing turnaround. The Phillies were counted out for the breadth of the 2007 season, but led by MVP Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia came through on Rollins’ bold declaration before the season that his team was the best in the NL East. This year it was Carlos Beltran who raised the stakes with similar words, but expect David Wright to carry the offensive load. One of the most polished all-around third basemen, the 25-year old Wright has found his power stroke and is heating up. Over the last three weeks, he’s raised his batting average 20 points, hit five home runs, and knocked in 23 runs. It’s no coincidence that New York has started to solve their woes on the road during his hot stretch. Expect Wright to play front and center down the stretch as he attempts to make due on his teammate’s guarantee.