Bring On Round 2!

The march to the Final Four of the 2008 NBA Playoffs begins on Saturday night with two fantastic Conference Semifinals getting started. Detroit and San Antonio, two of the league’s most accomplished teams, will take on two of the league’s brightest stars. Dwight Howard put up 3 20-20 games in the first 1st round, leading Orlando to its first series win since 1999, and into an interesting second round matchup against the Pistons, looking to make it six consecutive Conference Final appearances. Nine games may have separated the Pistons and Magic in the standings, but Orlando’s 27-14 road record makes them a threat to win any game at the Palace. They beat Detroit 103-85 on the road in their last meeting. In the nightcap the Spurs head to New Orleans to face the Hornets in another great series. The matchup between Tony Parker and Chris Paul is a battle of titans. Parker completely outclassed Steve Nash, while Paul did the exact same thing to Jason Kidd. Now they get to face each other; it should be great stuff.

While Cleveland waits for its opponent in the second round, the other side of the West has the Lakers hosting the Jazz, beginning on Sunday. Newly crowned MVP Kobe Bryant will be confronted by a team that actually knows how to play defense. That alone should make things just a little more competitive than LA’s first round romp of the hopeless Nuggets. Throw in the fact that Utah is 42-14 since their disappointing 16-16 start, and own the league’s best home record, and you’ve got yourself an interesting series. Only four teams beat the Jazz at Energy Solutions Arena this year, but the Lakers were one of them, blowing Utah out by double digits. The Jazz have lost only one home game since that March 20th meeting.

The first round of the playoffs only produced one Game 7, which will be in Boston on Sunday afternoon. Prior to the postseason, Celtics/Hawks was probably considered the least likely of all the series to go the distance. Boston won 29 games more than Atlanta over the course of the season, and didn’t exactly stumble their way into the playoffs, going 11-1 over their last 12. But, Atlanta has displayed uncanny resilience for a franchise that hasn’t been to the playoffs since 1999. They overcame a 0-2 deficit to the NBA’s best team in stride, and are one game away from the biggest upset ever seen in the postseason. But, as good as the Hawks have been, I don’t see them getting past the Celtics in the new “Garden” on Sunday. They deserve all the credit in the world for forcing this to a seventh game, but they aren’t winning on the road. Boston won Games 1, 2, and 5 by an average of 22 points. That won’t change in the decisive game of the series. So, with that in mind, I’m penciling in the Celtics into the second round against Cleveland.

Eastern Conference

#4 Cleveland over #1 Boston, 6 games
I’ve already declared myself to be a fool by guaranteeing a Celtics win in Game 7, but even if they advance, I’m still severely disappointed. Boston hasn’t played like a team that is ready for a run to the Finals, even in the East. Cleveland had to battle hard through an emotional series, but came out stronger for it, blowing out the Wizards in their series clinching Game 6 victory. Daniel “Boobie” Gibson and Wally Szczerbiak were surgical from downtown, and along with Zydrunas Illgauskas, there are a lot of options to support LeBron James all of a sudden. James scored 23 points in the 105-88 victory last night, but still had a lasting impression on the game. He had his 19th career triple double and eliminated the Wizards on their home court for the third straight year. The Cavs are still good for the occasional scoring drought because of their reliance on LeBron, but they are a steady and experienced group that can beat the underachieving Celtics. Their deadline deal has paid off in a big way; Delonte West hit the game-winner in Game 4 and Szczerbiak

#3 Orlando over #2 Detroit, 6 games
I’m going with the underdog again in the East. The Pistons played close to flawless in the final two and a half games of the Sixers series, but what was the deal in the first three and a half? As long as the Pistons are going to be prone to these breakdowns, they will be vulnerable. Howard is the best big man left in the East, – including Kevin Garnett, who hasn’t played as well in the playoffs -- and Orlando has become a real force, behind the brilliant coaching of Stan Van Gundy. SVG got a raw deal in Miami, but he’s sitting pretty now in Florida’s other NBA franchise. The Magic have proven that they are more than just Dwight Howard. Hedo Turkoglu beat out a loaded field for NBA’s Most Improved and Rashard Lewis was one of the league’s best 3-pointers shooters at 41%. They will provide plenty of help for Dwight Howard, and lead Orlando to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Western Conference

#1 Lakers over #4 Jazz, 7 games
I firmly believe that Utah’s road woes are overstated; they were terrible in the first two months of the season when they started 16-16, but since then, they’ve gotten much better. With that said, I don’t think this team has what it takes to win at the Staples Center in the playoffs. Something about Kobe Bryant and Phil Jackson makes it near impossible for any road teams to do that in the postseason. Utah will still make this an entertaining series by holding serve on their home court, where they are near invincible as well. The Jazz have the personnel to throw many different looks at the MVP to try and rattle him. A combination of Ronnie Brewer, Andrei Kirilenko, Matt Harpring, and Kyle Korver were used against T-Mac in Round 1, and a similar scheme will be used again in Round 2. Their main priority is to prevent Kobe from scoring 40. He will get his 25, but this group will try to make him work very hard to get there. The X-factor in this series will be Boozer vs. Gasol. The power forward that can get the best of that matchup will give their team the edge. The Lakers bench will also go a long way toward determining the outcome of this series.

#3 Spurs over #2 Hornets, 7 games
When comparing these two teams, there’s not a whole lot that separates them. Both enter with 56 victories in the regular season, a five-game series win in the first round, and two wins against each other in the head-to-head. New Orleans only got the division title because their conference record was one game better than the Spur, which affords them home court advantage in this series. Those sorts of things don’t matter to the Spurs, who just flip a switch in the postseason. Chris Paul, Tyson Chandler, and David West are an overwhelming trio to handle, but San Antonio is up to the challenge defensively. Tim Duncan, Fabricio Oberto, and Kurt Thomas are all skilled defenders and will make the big men work for everything. New Orleans will have their hands full with the Spurs own Big 3, Manu Ginobli in particular. Parker will be occupied by Paul, and Duncan will be handled by the West/Chandler combo, but finding the right defender for Ginbobli’s relentless attacking game is more difficult. Not many teams have the answers for him, and as a result, adjustments made on Ginobli make Tony and Tim even better than they already are. For those reasons, and their constant defensive intensity, I give the Spurs the slight nod in this one. New Orleans will make them earn every inch of it, however, and it should make for a great series.