Federer's Struggles Continue

Roger Federer got sent packing in the 1st round of the Dubai Championships yesterday, a tournament he’s won four times over his illustrious career. The 6-7 (6), 6-3, 6-4 loss is the latest chink in the armor for a man that has been near flawless for the past four years. The 12-time Grand Slam champion has shown growing signs of vulnerability in the last six months, losing five matches since the U.S. Open, including a humbling straight set’s loss to Novak Djokovic in the semifinals of the Australian Open. Federer has only won two of his last six tournaments, losing before the finals in three of them. This time it was young Brit Andrew Murray that clipped him, only one of many youngsters that have closed the gap.

Federer has been ranked #1 every week since February 2004, but his lead is dwindling. Rafael Nadal is only 360 points behind him, the closest he’s been during Federer’s impressive run. Federer stands to lose the points he accumulated from winning the tournament last year, and Nadal has points to gain from his second round loss a year ago. Nadal squandered his first opportunity of stealing the top ranking in Melbourne, but has a good chance to do it in Dubai. By the end of the week, the Spaniard could be at the top of the rankings, an unprecedented feat in this generation of men’s tennis.

Federer drops to 5-2 on the year, and marks the second time in three months that he’s lost two matches in a row. At the last two events last year, Federer lost to David Nalbandian in Paris, then lost to Fernando Gonzalez in his first round robin match of the year-end championships. He rebounded from that losing streak to win the event, sweeping the next four matches without losing a set. How will he respond to this latest losing streak?

I’ve hinted at oncoming parity in men’s tennis before, but the sudden arrival of it is a breath of fresh air in men’s tennis. We are arriving at the point now where we can no longer pencil Federer in the finals of every tournament he plays. This is a good thing for a sport that has been so vanilla for years. Federer has already rewritten the record books as an amazing champion, but now the field has punched back. A crop of players like Nadal, Djokovic, Murray (left), Richard Gasquet, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, among many others are finally good enough to challenge the mighty Federer.

Fellow immortal Tiger Woods is living in a world where his competition in golf has never been weaker, and is taking advantage of it by obliterating the field at every tournament he plays. This has been the story of Roger Federer’s life for the last three and a half years. It’s time for a little bit of a change, and it’s coming much faster than we could have hoped. The race for the top spot hasn’t been this interesting in years, and should boost interest in tennis in ’08.