My Inevitable Conference Championship Post

We’re two wins away from a dream Super Bowl (for most) that features Tom Brady and Brett Favre, who enter their respective Conference Championships as heavy favorites at home. A Packers/Patriots Super Bowl would be a juicy game to sink your teeth into for all the right reasons. It’s the amazing, undefeated evil empire taking on everybody’s favorite quarterback at the twilight of his career, joined with his batch of talented youngsters. Can’t get much better than that if you’re the NFL. But, there still lies the possibility of a Phillip vs. Eli matchup that would have its own bit of intrigue, albeit for very different reasons. No one really believes that the latter could happen, but these dogs are receiving way too little credit, and will have something to prove on Sunday.

The AFC Championship features the league’s two hottest teams. Everyone knows that the Pats are on a 17-game winning streak, and that they haven’t lost since last year's AFC Championship Game where they infamously blew an 18-point lead. But, in beating the Colts last week, the Chargers displayed a newfound resolve that has been missing from this team in their well-documented postseason failures of the past. Many are discounting San Diego’s chances of making things interesting in Foxboro by insisting that Phillip Rivers, Antonio Gates, and LaDainian Tomlinson are not at their best. The trio wasn’t at their best in Indy, but the Chargers still found a way to walk away from the RCA Dome with a victory. Only New England has been able to do that against a full strength Colts team. Chris Chambers, Vincent Jackson, Darren Sproles, and Billy Volek all scored touchdowns for the Chargers last week. How about that for a diversity of offensive weaponry? Volek led the Chargers on the game-winning 78-yard drive. How many teams could have their back-up quarterback lead a clinching drive in a road playoff game against the defending champions? Not many. With Tomlinson almost certain to play, Volek won’t have as much pressure to throw the ball consistently, either.

Ted Cottrell’s defensive unit is very talented, and is beginning to show just how good they can be. San Diego absolutely owned the turnover battle against the Colts last week, forcing three turnovers in the red zone. One of them, a terrific touchdown return by Antonio Cromartie (left), was called back on a phantom holding penalty. The opportunistic defense has forced at least two turnovers in eight straight games, which also happens to be the Chargers winning streak entering this game. San Diego has forced 40 turnovers in all for the year, which is tops in the NFL. Norv Turner’s group will only hang around in this game if they are able to win the turnover battle.

Forcing turnovers on Tom Brady and the Patriots offense will be near impossible, but it’s the only chance San Diego has. New England looked flawless on offense a week ago against the scrappy Jacksonville defense. The Chargers have just as talented a group, but will they be as disciplined as the Jaguars against the deep ball? New England had no problem chipping away with their short passing game, and there’s no reason they can’t have success doing that against San Diego. The Pats have proven time and again that even without Randy Moss, they will find ways to expose your defense. Anyone who had doubts about whether New England could run the ball forgot thought they had Laurence Maroney (right). The second year man from Minnesota played second fiddle to New England’s ridiculous passing attack all season, but he’s a very talented back no less. He’s fresh, and hitting his groove when his team really needs it. Maroney ran all over Jacksonville in the Divisional Round, running for 122 yards, gaining 5.5 yards a carry, and even scored a touchdown. He doesn’t fumble the ball either, only one during his two years with the Patriots.

New England’s defense may be of the old variety, but they still find a way to get the job done. With the type of offense that is backing them, there’s not a whole lot of pressure on this unit. Playing with a lead on a consistent basis has eased the load on this aging group, yet they still find ways to hold their end of the bargain. The Patriots did allow their fair share of yards to the Jags last week, but the two turnovers they forced decided the game. Rodney Harrison has the distinction of being only the second person (Aenas Williams was the first) to have four consecutive playoff games with an interception. If he becomes the first to make it five, there’s a good chance he could be playing for 19-0 in two weeks.

The Pick: San Diego will keep this close, trailing by three midway through the fourth quarter. But, in the most crucial drive of the season, the Patriots get the touchdown they need, as usual, and walk away with the AFC Title. Patriots, 34-24


Many agreed that losing Tiki Barber to retirement wouldn’t help the Giants get past the first round of the playoffs, a spot that had dogged Eli Manning down hard early in his career. But, the exit of Barber has made things much looser around New York’s locker room. Their running attack has replaced Barber with relative ease. Brandon Jacobs and fast-rising Ahmad Bradshaw are holding their own as the dual backs for Tom Coughlin. But, the real eye-opener this postseason has been Eli Manning’s unusually solid form. He’s got a quarterback rating of 123.2, with four touchdowns, and zero turnovers. Manning is playing within himself and following the team’s game plan to a tee. Veteran Amani Toomer (left) has been resurrected, catching three of Manning’s touchdowns passes in the playoffs. You can’t forget about Plaxico Burress though. Burress will be able to stretch Green Bay’s defense and he’s still Manning’s favorite target. Manning’s ability to avoid the costly mistakes that break open close games has allowed the Giants relentless pass rush to sink their teeth into the opposition on defense.

New York’s defense has taken over in the playoffs, handling Tampa Bay and Dallas on the road with little trouble. The Giants owned the Cowboys potent offense in the second half last Sunday, and made life extremely stressful for Tony Romo when he tried to direct a game-winning drive. Stopping the Packers will be tough, especially with Ryan Grant emerging as the team’s star on offense now. New York had trouble with the Cowboys running game early, but figured things out in the second half. Grant will be quite a challenge this week, and the Giants can’t afford to let him run loose in the first half like they allowed Marion Barber to do last week.

It’s been a meteoric rise from obscurity for Grant (right), who set the Packers franchise record by running for 201 yards and three touchdowns in Saturday’s 42-20 blowout. The game couldn’t have started worse for the Packers, who were down 14-0 before the fans could get settled in. Saturday’s star was a goat for the first six minutes of the game, fumbling twice that led directly to both of Seattle’s touches. After that, though, Green Bay dominated by scoring touchdowns on six straight possessions until the game was well in hand in the fourth quarter. Brett Favre was flawless; he only threw for 173 yards, but he was an efficient 18/23 and threw for three touchdowns himself. Green Bay’s offense is operating on all cylinders at the right time. Time has been the operative word for Brett Favre, because he had all day to throw last week. You absolutely can’t let a legend have that much time to throw because he will burn you eventually. Seattle’s coverage wasn’t awful, but the failure to generate a pass rush allowed Favre to pick their defense apart. New York’s strength is their ability to generate pressure on the quarterback, but they failed miserably at that in the first meeting between these two teams. I think they will be committed to making up for that on Sunday. Osi Umeniyora and Michael Strahan are a lot to handle, and it will be compelling to see how they redeem themselves from a 21-point loss at home to these guys in Week 2.

After being put in such a precarious position early in the game, Green Bay’s defense really settled down and held Seattle to only two field goals the rest of the way in last week’s romp. The Packers defense only allowed 20 yards rushing, and will try to hit Jacobs and Bradshaw to the Lambeau Field turf early and often. That pair has made life much easier for Manning in the postseason; if they are slowed, Green Bay won’t need to stack the box. Aaron Kampman, Nick Barnett, and Atari Bigby lead the defense, and all made their presence felt against the Seahawks. There’s no weakness on this group, and all three levels are capable of making a big play. If Green Bay can rattle Eli early, we may see a return to old form for the younger Manning brother.

The Pick: Defense will prevail in this one; the conditions will make passing pretty tough. With the strong arrival of Ryan Grant on the scene, the Packers have the edge. They don’t lose in Lambeau in games like this very often, and they sure as hell aren’t going to start now. Packers, 21-18